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Recently Closed Positions:
Current MAPY: 6.9%
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Day Play:
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3-Day Play:
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Longer:
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Commentary:
As we feared, we have missed some outgoing barges. This is the penalty we pay for the conservative strategy that keeps all of our trades green. One of our trade accounts is up 60% since July 2008. Not bad, but days like today tempt us to dive in without checking how deep the water is.
As we mentioned we did more selling than buying into this rally, and selling early too. With DOW 10k we will likely see more optimism and are looking for entry but our entry points are extremely conservative.
We have warned on Intel's high P/E ratio. As we continue to caution on AAPL's. MSFT's on the other hand is relatively low and they are still the leaders, so we continue to try to find an entry. When they blew well into $26 yesterday we had to move our entry.
NBG has been getting our praises for over a year now. Though our conservative strategy did not allow us to ride them up to this level. They've made us a lot of money in the past, but they have also risen too quickly. However, again, we've been forced to raise our conservative entry.
DBA is another conservative entry. We made a good profit just as it hit $26, but we don't trust this ETF. They trade futures and futures have been ravaged and manipulated the entire year. So our entry is pretty bearish.
We've been criticized for loosing big profits on AAPL. It doubled in value from where we took our 15%. Our response, any idiot who rode this thing up from $75 to $190 skipping all of the profits in between, get a clue and sell already. If you are still holding you've made less than we did. Any given day between then and now there were funds that outperformed that fanboy stock. We've owned dozens with that money. We didn't outperform AAPL but we were also not exposed to the risk that Steve Jobs may sneeze.
High P/E = High Speculation. If we really like a company, maybe 20 or 25, maybe even 30... but 30 years is pretty speculative.
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Daily or Weekly BS!
The Nobel Speech Prize is the current BS. Sorry Norway, but your manipulating has not gone unnoticed. We nominate Dr. Hilda Molina for her selfless act of career martyrdom and risk of imprisonment to bring attention to the health apartheid in Cuba. Someone whose actions speak much louder than just WORDS.
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